Hey there,

This isn’t your everyday edition of NIL Wire — but then again, Caitlin Clark isn’t isn’t your everyday hooper. She just passed “Pistol” Pete Maravich for the most career points scored in college basketball. As a result, we thought we’d give y’all a special edition where we make the case that maybe… Caitlin Clark’s NIL valuation is actually underrated? We hope you enjoy!

As always, we’d love to hear from you. Shoot us an email at editor@nil-wire to get in touch for business partnerships or even just good old fashioned feedback.

— Cole, Justin and Collin

Caitlin Clark.

She’s unlike anything we’ve ever seen before – not only in the women’s game, but across all of college basketball. Yesterday when Caitlin Clark broke “Pistol” Pete Maravich’s all-time college scoring record, she shattered over fifty years of history.

Earlier in February she shattered the women’s record by dropping 49 on Michigan (watch those highlights here). If that’s not enough to convince you, here’s a data visualization of every shot she’s ever made:

Of course, by now you probably know how amazing Caitlin Clark is. But what if I told you she’s actually underrated in terms of NIL? A bold claim, but I think the data is on my side. Let’s break it down. 

Making the Case

On3 currently sets Clark’s NIL value at a little under $1M. That figure is supposed to denote her “Annual Value”, which amounts to the money she receives from NIL collectives (“Roster Value”) combined with the money she receives from endorsements, (“Brand Value”). As I’m writing this, she holds the 30^th highest annual valuation in On3’s database.

As big as that nearly one-million-dollar valuation is, I think it’s misleading. The problem is that her actual value far surpasses that valuation because On3 is (correctly) factoring in that she receives no money from collectives.

According to Iowa’s collective director, “She hasn’t taken a dime from [the collective] yet… We’d love to compensate her and do things through the Swarm for her. But she has her own thing, which is totally fine. That’s her prerogative.”

If she’s not taking any money from Iowa’s NIL collective, that means 100% of her compensation comes from “true” NIL endorsements – businesses, not schools, investing in her name, image, and likeness for sponsorships.

Compensation Models

It may be best to think of Clark’s compensation model by looking at professional athletes. Below is Forbes’ list of the highest paid athletes of 2023:

If you look closely, you’ll see that the graph splits compensation into two categories: on-field and off-field compensation.

On-field compensation is the money an athlete gets paid to do their job – this could be a team salary or tournament winnings, depending on the sport’s payment structure.

Off-field compensation is the figure tied purely to endorsement opportunities. So while Messi may have a larger salary, Ronaldo is making more money because of endorsements.

Now, to put those two into On3’s NIL terms: The total figure is Annual Value, which is calculated by combining Roster Value (on-field compensation) with NIL Brand Value (off-field compensation). Clark only receives the latter. Make more sense now?

If a similar list were to be made with college sports, nearly every football player ahead of Caitlin would be receiving primarily “on-field” compensation because of NIL collective money. That’s not really a debatable point: According to On3 Founder Shannon Terry, collective payments constitute 90% of total NIL compensation for football.

Caitlin, on the other hand, would be making exclusively “off-field” money – which you can only do if you’re one of the biggest brands in college sports.

The Biggest Brand in College Sports?

Which is exactly what she is, by the way – Perhaps even the biggest brand in college sports. She just passed Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, who holds the second highest NIL valuation in the country, as Fanatics’ top selling NIL athlete. Sorry, Coach Prime.

In fact, she’s now their highest selling NIL athlete ever.

That’s why I think Clark is underrated. She isn’t just a one-of-a-kind basketball player – she’s also a one-of-a-kind businesswoman thanks to NIL. Her actual name, image, and likeness are about as big as it gets, but she remains undervalued because she’s making money solely through her brand — nothing else.

Caitlin Clark & the WNBA

WNBA superstar Kelsey Plum suggested Iowa’s NIL collective should “throw the kitchen sink” at Clark to get her to stay for a fifth year, but considering she hasn’t taken any collective money thus far, that’s likely a pipe-dream. Last week Caitlin announced she will be leaving Iowa after this season for the WNBA.

But there’s no guarantee she’ll be as much of a superstar for the Indiana Fever as she currently is for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Her college brand exposure — bolstered by a few memorable March Madness moments — could be bigger than anything she’d get in the WNBA. Nearly 10 million people watched Clark’s epic showdown with Angel Reese in last year’s March Madness final.

In comparison, the 2023 WNBA Finals – which boasted former college superstars like Sabrina Ionescu, Kelsey Plum, Candace Parker, and Breanna Stewart – only managed an average viewership of 7.28 million. That was a league record, by the way… but it’s still less than Clark’s college final.

What’s still to be seen is who benefits most from the presence of the other party: the WNBA, or Caitlin Clark. As of right now, Caitlin Clark’s brand recognition already overshadows many WNBA legends — that’s not a dig, just a reality. It’s fair to wonder if her leaving Iowa is actually the best decision from an endorsement deal standpoint.

Will the WNBA elevate her pristine brand to greater heights, or will Clark be consigned to become a college highlights superstar? Will viewership follow her into the professional ranks, or will casual basketball fans remember her as a figment of the early 2020s basketball consciousness? We don’t know yet.

But what we do know is the WNBA is going to be pouring resources into capitalizing on her name, image, and likeness at the professional level. The league’s business marketing strategy around Clark could make or break the WNBA’s fortunes for the next decade. Sorry Caitlin, but the pressure is on.

Now we’re too far into the future, so let’s bring it back to the present. Right here, right now Caitlin Clark is an NIL superstar, maybe even an underrated one. She’s the biggest name in college sports right now, and she’s done it without any money from collectives.

She doesn’t want college sports fans’ money – she wants our attention. Well, Caitlin Clark, you’ve got our attention.